With or Without

By Dikran Abrahamian, Ontario, 18 December 2024

(This short essay is the continuation of Confronting Turkey and Azerbaijan )

With “peace treaty” or without, with concessions or not, with “Zangezur Corridor” or otherwise, the Republic of Armenia (RoA) was looked upon, is, and will be considered prey to the heinous duo Erdogan-Aliyev. It was Erdogan who years ago trumpeted the battle cry to continue what Turks’ ancestors, Abdulhamid II and the Young Turks, had left unfinished, namely to erase Armenia from the political map and bury the “Armenian Question” for good.

Unfortunately, short-sighted people, who ignore lessons of the past and are carried away by the erroneous application of realpolitik principles, consider the above postulate a paranoid stance. Let them first look at themselves in the mirror. What’s left of RoA after three decades and more following “independence”? Its sovereignty is en route to extinction when enemies dictate exclusions from the constitution, demand the removal of EU civilian observers on the border, take away the right to petition or complain at international fora and organizations, and undermine the potential to have an adequate army for self-defense. Simultaneously, a long-held Turkish policy to divorce the Diaspora from RoA, for which millions are spent each year by Turkey, is aggressively implemented by the leaders of RoA.

There is a lack of a far-sighted strategy to mitigate the adverse effects of the geopolitical situation prevailing in the Caucasus caused by international rivalries. The West (USA and EU) has its interests in opposition to Russia; the Turkic countries have an agenda with an insatiable appetite to expand and realize the pan-Turan dream; China and India have economic interests; Iran is intimately involved due to security concerns, and amid all this, an expansionist Israel is tilting an already unequal military balance between RoA and Azerbaijan further in favor of the latter.

It’s no secret that Azerbaijan continues to import sophisticated arms from Israel. Recent visit of two AIPAC senior people to Baku is very telling in this context as a sign of an additional layer of Israeli solidarity with Azerbaijan. Unconfirmed reports also mention a meeting between Indian and Russian representatives. At the gathering, one of the Russian delegates made a “friendly” request to India to provide armaments to Azerbaijan in equal quality and quantity to that allocated to RoA. Military exercises, albeit limited, continue by Azerbaijan in areas bordering RoA. The region is a tinder box: any miscalculation by any party could lead to war, and certainly, RoA would bear heavy losses irrespective of the outcome.

It’s naïve to think that RoA leadership is unaware of the complex and precarious situation. However, the approach to handling it is questionable. First and foremost, any country facing such a potentially dangerous state needs to create the necessary atmosphere to unify its citizens around basic principles of self-preservation and defense.  The task involves the ideological, economic, and military spheres. Playing the game of “us vs them” does not help create unity; similarly, incessantly claiming “we are defending democracy, but they will re-establish oligarchy” is destructive as is misplaced fearmongering that we’ll face war if concessions are not made.

The citizenry is already fragmented into multiple tribal and mafia-style sectors, and the leadership is promoting this precarious environment to remain in power. Also, the opposition does not uplift the citizens’ morale or minimize people’s indifference by merely criticizing the prime minister and demanding his resignation without presenting a comprehensive alternative plan. Granted, some parties provide the necessary ideological and political ingredients, but they are short on funds and media venues to propagate their outlook for a secure future.

Some contemplate radical measures to bring down the regime. Such moves are suicidal. Any change in the status quo will be a pretext by the notorious Turkic duo to interfere militarily. During this season, when the world is preoccupied with Christmas and the New Year’s celebrations, the aftermath of the Syrian unknown trajectory, and the ongoing Ukraine war, to expect the West to intervene effectively on behalf of RoA when the Turks invade is an illusion. The US defense secretary’s pronouncements about “strategic partnership” and upholding the territorial integrity of RoA will vanish in thin air.

Promoters of the EU cite vital benefits and stress that it would enhance RoA’s security. Hypothetically, there is an argument to be made, but the movement is in its infancy, and it may take decades or a whole generation to realize such a plan; furthermore, it may end up in limbo like Georgia’s case. There are numerous hurdles to overcome, whereas RoA faces an existential threat NOW.

A short and non-comprehensive list of what needs to be done, and already proposed by many politicians, historians, and academia in a variety of fields include:

• continue purchase of defensive arms,
• establish effective military and economic alliances,
• maintain OSCE (Minsk group),
• involve people in the bureaucracy and the army on merits, not based on kinship,
• encourage and expand citizen defense training, especially for the youth,
• continue friendly relations with the West without immediate great expectations,
• constantly raise the complex issue of Artsakh (Karabagh) at every opportunity in international fora and organizations;
• similarly expose Turkic false claims and historical distortions,
• implement progressive personal and corporate income tax system, drastically decrease taxes on businesses with low and middle income, and increase on high income earners
• discontinue the destructive rhetoric against the Diaspora.

These are some of the measures that need to be implemented like yesterday. Most of what has been suggested cannot be realized by a leadership mired in treacherous deeds. It’s up to the citizenry to act through trusted individuals, NGOs, and parties to find the magic wand to reverse this national tragedy of indifference and the feeling of helplessness. It’s incumbent on all patriots to leave their differences aside, weed out elements that serve foreign interests, and agree on basic principles of national recovery. All the battles of our nation that have been morally or de facto won, were achieved through unity. A century ago, the great poet Charents sounded the alarm, “O Armenian people, your only salvation is in your collective strength.”  We should heed and act upon those words to proudly say with Baruyr Sevag, “We are” and “We will be.”

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Cartoon by Sevag: “Is there a future in the East?”