Looking at Armenian-Turkish Relations

Without Paranoia, Obsessions or Hysteria

By Arevordi, USA, 8 October 2009

The following note and the accompanying picture were received as a comment to David Boyajian's The Coming Russian Defeat in the Caucasus . It is an attempt to look at the geopolitics of the region differently. Lengthwise, it is more than what a simple comment would be. Hence, it is presented here as a stand-alone article. The author has used an Alias. Although the e-mail can be seen at this end, it would have been desirable to have the real name for the record. Judging from the content the author seems to be an Armenian individual, but one can never be sure. For that matter, it may be a propaganda piece provided by any number of services. Keghart.com makes an exception here, hoping that the readers will ignore who the author is and deal with the content.

One final remark: it is noted that as the days of the signing/ratification of the Protocols approach, the protagonists are coming forward and becoming forceful. One wonders why they were silent when they were first announced. Is this a concerted effort to try to demoralize the opponents of the Protocols?

Without Paranoia, Obsessions or Hysteria

By Arevordi, USA, 8 October 2009

The following note and the accompanying picture were received as a comment to David Boyajian's The Coming Russian Defeat in the Caucasus . It is an attempt to look at the geopolitics of the region differently. Lengthwise, it is more than what a simple comment would be. Hence, it is presented here as a stand-alone article. The author has used an Alias. Although the e-mail can be seen at this end, it would have been desirable to have the real name for the record. Judging from the content the author seems to be an Armenian individual, but one can never be sure. For that matter, it may be a propaganda piece provided by any number of services. Keghart.com makes an exception here, hoping that the readers will ignore who the author is and deal with the content.

One final remark: it is noted that as the days of the signing/ratification of the Protocols approach, the protagonists are coming forward and becoming forceful. One wonders why they were silent when they were first announced. Is this a concerted effort to try to demoralize the opponents of the Protocols?
 

Looking at Armenian-Turkish Relations
Without the Paranoia, Obsessions or the Hysteria
The so-called "protocols" have been discussed at length. Many approaches, be it ideological, political, ethical or spiritual, have been taken into full account. Thus far, the picture painted by many of us in the diaspora looks utterly bleak, bordering on apocalyptic. One thing, however, that I have yet to see seriously scrutinized is the crucially important factor of geopolitics, or the thing we call realpolitik. The links provided below are regarding some interesting geopolitical and economic developments occurring, somewhat under the radar, within the Caucasus. The information that I am providing you here is crucial for better understanding what is occurring in the Caucasus today. Thus, they definitely deserve a serious look. I urge you all to make some time and read them. But before that, I have a few comments to make…

Basing my opinion on what I have been observing in regional developments for the past several years, it is quite obvious that there are serious plans for the greater Caucasus region, plans in which Armenia may take center stage. The mastermind of this new agenda is Vladimir Putin's Moscow. And one of the most obvious manifestations of this agenda has been the warming of relations between Turkey and Armenia; of course under the watchful eyes of the Kremlin.

Don't believe ignorant talk concerning the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia being a "Western" agenda. It is far from it. The West is currently powerless in the Caucasus. In a sense, the West is forced to go along with the political/economic process set in motion by Moscow. Let's remember that the warming of relations between Ankara and Yerevan was started in Moscow just before the Russian-Georgian war. This process then reached a climax when Turkey's Gul visited Armenia in the immediate aftermath of Russia's war against Georgia – a war that saw the decisive defeat of the American-European-Turkish-Israeli backed regime in Tbilisi. According to international political analysts, Georgia's defeat more-or-less eliminated Western and Turkish (and by extension, Israeli) interests from within the Caucasus region.

For those who are unfamiliar with the geopolitics of the region, a simple explanation – For the past twenty years or so the West, in-tandem with Turkey and Israel, has been attempting to wrestle the strategic region of the Caucasus away from Russian control. The bloody Islamic insurgency in Chechnya and the arming of Georgia had been a part of the greater anti-Russian agenda of the West. However, we Armenians need to be mindful of the fact that without a Russian presence in the Caucasus the entire region in question will no doubt turn into a Turkic/Islamic cesspool and a playground for various intelligence services. Needless to say, Armenia cannot live as a state in the Caucasus without an effective Russian presence there.

With the Caucasus now effectively in their hands, and at their mercy, Moscow seems to be embarked on long term plan to essentially remake the Caucasus in its image. And, for better or for worst, Moscow has decided that it will use its regional strategic partner, Armenia, as its staging-ground for deeper relations with regional nations. Simply put, Armenia, as its only ally in the region, is expected to project Russian power in the south Caucasus and Asia Minor. And due to Europe's severe dependency on Central Asian gas and oil (the distribution of which Moscow now fully controls) coupled with the economic crisis that currently engulfs them, the West is more-or-less going along with Moscow's plans. In other words, they can't stop Moscow and they need the energy and Moscow is more than happy to sell them what they want through their regional stronghold, Armenia.

Nonetheless, before we figuratively speaking hang our nation's leadership for some vague wordage used on some meaningless piece of paper, let's all realize that a tiny, impoverished nation surrounded by enemies in the Caucasus has very limited leverage on an international negotiation table. We must realize that Armenia is not, nor can it be under its current geopolitical circumstances, a truly an independent state. What we need to be grateful about, however, is the simple fact that for once in our recent history we as a nation serve the strategic interests of a regional superpower. And what we can take pride in is the simple fact that as a result of its strategic relationship with Moscow Armenia's (as well as Artsakh's) borders have never been stronger. As a matter of fact, Turkey agreeing to open borders with Armenia while Artsakh remains under Armenian control has been a major victory for the Armenian side.

Anyway, don't worry folks, even if Armenia's leadership were all a bunch of traitors and they all wanted to sell Armenia to the Turks, Russians would not allowed it, nor would Iranians for that matter. Let's not forget what happened to Vazgen Sargsyan and Garen Demirjyan when they got too close to the West back in 1999… Therefore, don't kid yourselves folks, if the Kremlin thought that the southern Caucasus would be penetrated by Turks as a result of "open borders" with Armenia there would be no Turkish-Armenian relations to speak of today.

I personally do not believe that our leadership in Yerevan is stupid, in that they do not understand politics, nor do I believe that they are treasonous, in that they have been bought by Turks. Our leadership in Yerevan is forced to go along with the greater agenda that has been placed on the table as they try to extract some benefit from it. Let us also take into serious consideration the cold realization that Armenia is stagnating politically and economically due to its isolation and poverty. If nothing is done about this predicament, in a generation or two the landlocked and resource-less country may forever sink into a Third World oblivion. Our leadership needs to do anything and everything, within proper boundaries of course, to ensure Armenia's prosperity and longevity.

With some concerns and reservations I remain hopeful that something good will come out of the current political process. I am looking at what's occurring in Armenian-Turkish relations objectively and rationally, without the paranoia, hysteria or obsessions expressed by many in our diaspora. And for Armenia's sake, I hope you prophets of doom are wrong and I am right. In final analysis, we in the diaspora, as long as we choose to remain in the diaspora, have no right to 'demand' anything from officials in Armenia because it is the natives of Armenia that will have to live with the consequences of politics – not us. Armenia cannot be the diaspora's test tube nor can it be held hostage to its ideological whims.

I ask you again to read the information from the following sources to better understand what is happening in the Caucasus today.

————————————-

The Caucasus: Small War, Big Damage: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/t…6.php?CID=1176

That Was No Small War in Georgia — It Was the Beginning of the End of the American Empire:
http://donvandergriff.wordpress.com/…erican-empire/

Caucasus Is Real Citadel of Russian Power: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio…le/383525.html

A Northern Neighbor Growls, and Azerbaijan Reassesses Its Options: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/23/wo…i.html?_r=1&em

RUSSIA: MOSCOW MULLS CONSTRUCTION OF ARMENIA-IRAN RAILWAY LINK:
http://www.eurasianet.org/department…v093009b.shtml

ARMENIA: RAILWAY PREPARES TO GO TO TURKEY: http://www.eurasianet.org/department…v092909c.shtml

Seven-thousand kilometer project is awaiting parliamentary approval: http://www.sabahenglish.com/news/8386.html

Turkish press: EU to involve Armenia in Nabucco project at Georgia’s expense: http://news.am/en/news/3805.html

Asian Bank To Fund Road Projects In Armenia, Georgia: http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/1839958.html

Alexey Miller: Iran, Turkey to do gas swaps through Armenia: http://news.am/en/news/3883.html

Gasprom considers possible construction of oil refinery in Armenia: http://www.arka.am/eng/energy/2009/06/23/15426.html

Russia signs deal to build Turkey's first nuclear power plant: http://en.rian.ru/business/20090806/155747143.html

Azerbaijan: The Stark New Energy Landscape: http://www.turkishforum.com.tr/en/co…rgy-landscape/

YEVSEYEV: TURKISH-ARMENIAN DIALOGUE TOWARDS RUSSIAN INTERESTS:
http://www.historyoftruth.com/news/y…ests-3978.html

Turkish-Armenian Reconciliation Is Possible – and Necessary: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p…t=va&aid=10083

Turkey in tight spot between Russia and NATO: http://www.reuters.com/article/reute…BrandChannel=0

Turkey Plays to Russia in Caucasus: http://www.kommersant.com/p1022936/r…rkey_Caucasus/

Shifting Geopolitics- The Rise of Russia and Turkey: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9509.html

6 comments
  1. Finally, bravo. Some sense!

    Finally, bravo. Some sense! I could careless who wrote it because the prudent geopolitical analysis of the work speaks for itself. For what it’s worth, I searched on Google for the alias "Arevordi" and I came up with this site: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

  2. 60k native protesters in Armenia do NOT welcome protocols

    Kind of blows your faulty argument out of the water, Arevordi.

    1. Haroutioun
      According to ALL SOURCES except Dashnaktsutyun’s the protesters numbered not more than 10,000. Let’s not exaggerate.

      1. Well, 10,000 protestors, even
        Well, 10,000 protestors, even if not in one place, still would send an alarming message to anyone!

  3. The fact of the matter is
    The fact of the matter is Russia has been in firm control of the Caucasus for two hundreds years, even during the disastrous Bolshevik revolution, even during the dark days of the Nazi invasion and even during the reign of the Western installed drunkard called Yeltsin. The fact of the matter is during the summer of 2008 a ten thousand strong Russian army defeated more-or-less the combined weight of the Western world and Turkey when it totally crushed the Georgian military in just four days. The fact of the matter is due to this historic defeat of its historic antagonists Moscow has begun to implement various long term economic projects for the Caucasus, free of meddling, through its stronghold in Armenia. This is a great opportunity for Armenia. Yet, due to our narrow minded obsessive minds we want to be left out of progress. As long as our homeland fits our shallow national ideologies we could careless if it remains a Third World nation.

  4. The site administrator here
    The site administrator here stated –

    "it is noted that as the days of the signing/ratification of the Protocols approach, the protagonists are coming forward and becoming forceful. One wonders why they were silent when they were first announced. Is this a concerted effort to try to demoralize the opponents of the Protocols?"

    I am a "protagonist" (if that’s what you want to call it) of the current political process. Although I know I am not in the majority in the diaspora, I know many other like me in the homeland and in the diaspora. I spend a significant amount of my time in the homeland and I know that a majority in the homeland are for the political process. The few thousands you see in the streets in Yerevan are simply there to express their hate for Serj Sargsyan and not because they understand what is happening in the political world.

    Anyway, Armenians who think like me have been silenced by the ignorant majority in the diaspora, the masses if you will. Our voices have generally speaking been drowned out by the mass hysteria going on in our diaspora today. I can only speak for myself when I say that the only reason I began making commentaries in various discussions boards, like the one I am making here, is when I noticed a serious rift being placed between the diaspora and the homeland by us diasporans. I have even seen calls for "eliminating" our president. All this, in my opinion, stems from hysteria, paranoia and ignorance. And all this can do is stunt Armenia’s forward progress.

    I don’t know who wrote the political essay you are so suspicious of but I suggest you to read it word-for-word for it is the most sensible thing I have yet read on this matter.

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