Looking at Armenian-Turkish Relations

The so-called "protocols" have been discussed at length. Many approaches, be it ideological, political, ethical or spiritual, have been taken into full account. Thus far, the picture painted by many of us in the diaspora looks utterly bleak, bordering on apocalyptic. One thing, however, that I have yet to see seriously scrutinized is the crucially important factor of geopolitics, or the thing we call realpolitik. The links provided below are regarding some interesting geopolitical and economic developments occurring, somewhat under the radar, within the Caucasus. The information that I am providing you here is crucial for better understanding what is occurring in the Caucasus today. Thus, they definitely deserve a serious look. I urge you all to make some time and read them. But before that, I have a few comments to make…

Basing my opinion on what I have been observing in regional developments for the past several years, it is quite obvious that there are serious plans for the greater Caucasus region, plans in which Armenia may take center stage. The mastermind of this new agenda is Vladimir Putin's Moscow. And one of the most obvious manifestations of this agenda has been the warming of relations between Turkey and Armenia; of course under the watchful eyes of the Kremlin.

Don't believe ignorant talk concerning the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia being a "Western" agenda. It is far from it. The West is currently powerless in the Caucasus. In a sense, the West is forced to go along with the political/economic process set in motion by Moscow. Let's remember that the warming of relations between Ankara and Yerevan was started in Moscow just before the Russian-Georgian war. This process then reached a climax when Turkey's Gul visited Armenia in the immediate aftermath of Russia's war against Georgia – a war that saw the decisive defeat of the American-European-Turkish-Israeli backed regime in Tbilisi. According to international political analysts, Georgia's defeat more-or-less eliminated Western and Turkish (and by extension, Israeli) interests from within the Caucasus region.

For those who are unfamiliar with the geopolitics of the region, a simple explanation – For the past twenty years or so the West, in-tandem with Turkey and Israel, has been attempting to wrestle the strategic region of the Caucasus away from Russian control. The bloody Islamic insurgency in Chechnya and the arming of Georgia had been a part of the greater anti-Russian agenda of the West. However, we Armenians need to be mindful of the fact that without a Russian presence in the Caucasus the entire region in question will no doubt turn into a Turkic/Islamic cesspool and a playground for various intelligence services. Needless to say, Armenia cannot live as a state in the Caucasus without an effective Russian presence there.

With the Caucasus now effectively in their hands, and at their mercy, Moscow seems to be embarked on long term plan to essentially remake the Caucasus in its image. And, for better or for worst, Moscow has decided that it will use its regional strategic partner, Armenia, as its staging-ground for deeper relations with regional nations. Simply put, Armenia, as its only ally in the region, is expected to project Russian power in the south Caucasus and Asia Minor. And due to Europe's severe dependency on Central Asian gas and oil (the distribution of which Moscow now fully controls) coupled with the economic crisis that currently engulfs them, the West is more-or-less going along with Moscow's plans. In other words, they can't stop Moscow and they need the energy and Moscow is more than happy to sell them what they want through their regional stronghold, Armenia.

Nonetheless, before we figuratively speaking hang our nation's leadership for some vague wordage used on some meaningless piece of paper, let's all realize that a tiny, impoverished nation surrounded by enemies in the Caucasus has very limited leverage on an international negotiation table. We must realize that Armenia is not, nor can it be under its current geopolitical circumstances, a truly an independent state. What we need to be grateful about, however, is the simple fact that for once in our recent history we as a nation serve the strategic interests of a regional superpower. And what we can take pride in is the simple fact that as a result of its strategic relationship with Moscow Armenia's (as well as Artsakh's) borders have never been stronger. As a matter of fact, Turkey agreeing to open borders with Armenia while Artsakh remains under Armenian control has been a major victory for the Armenian side.

Anyway, don't worry folks, even if Armenia's leadership were all a bunch of traitors and they all wanted to sell Armenia to the Turks, Russians would not allowed it, nor would Iranians for that matter. Let's not forget what happened to Vazgen Sargsyan and Garen Demirjyan when they got too close to the West back in 1999… Therefore, don't kid yourselves folks, if the Kremlin thought that the southern Caucasus would be penetrated by Turks as a result of "open borders" with Armenia there would be no Turkish-Armenian relations to speak of today.

I personally do not believe that our leadership in Yerevan is stupid, in that they do not understand politics, nor do I believe that they are treasonous, in that they have been bought by Turks. Our leadership in Yerevan is forced to go along with the greater agenda that has been placed on the table as they try to extract some benefit from it. Let us also take into serious consideration the cold realization that Armenia is stagnating politically and economically due to its isolation and poverty. If nothing is done about this predicament, in a generation or two the landlocked and resource-less country may forever sink into a Third World oblivion. Our leadership needs to do anything and everything, within proper boundaries of course, to ensure Armenia's prosperity and longevity.

With some concerns and reservations I remain hopeful that something good will come out of the current political process. I am looking at what's occurring in Armenian-Turkish relations objectively and rationally, without the paranoia, hysteria or obsessions expressed by many in our diaspora. And for Armenia's sake, I hope you prophets of doom are wrong and I am right. In final analysis, we in the diaspora, as long as we choose to remain in the diaspora, have no right to 'demand' anything from officials in Armenia because it is the natives of Armenia that will have to live with the consequences of politics – not us. Armenia cannot be the diaspora's test tube nor can it be held hostage to its ideological whims.

I ask you again to read the information from the following sources to better understand what is happening in the Caucasus today.

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