Keghart
Editorial, 12 October 2015
The Russian Bear has landed in Syria with a loud thump.
Since the Russian forces launched, on September 30, their air action against the enemies of the Syrian government, punditry has gone into over-drive. Antagonists of Moscow have condemned President Vladimir Putin for throwing a life-line to the Syrian dictator, for interfering in Middle Eastern affairs, of expanding its “aggression” from Ukraine to the oil-rich Arab world. Pundits and countries which have “no dog in the race” have wondered why Putin would get into the violent Middle Eastern quagmire which has left America with second thoughts about its disastrous involvement in Iraq. Friends of Russia and the victims of the Syrian Civil War have welcomed Putin’s army. Some have even sighed with “what took you so long?”
With an average of 20 sorties a day, the Russian aircraft (SU-34, SU-24M2, MiGs) carrying FAB-50 bombs, OFAB 250-70 “bunker busters”, BETAB-M bombs, anti-tank cluster munitions (RBK-500 and SPBE-D have seriously damaged the rebels (such as the al-Nusra Front) and the ISIS terrorists forcing them to withdraw from several strategic areas in the north east of Syria. The Russians have also used precision guided munitions and laser guided missiles of the Kh-29ML-type. For a further show of strength and commitment, they have fired missiles from 1,500 km away—from their warships in the Caspian. American sources have reported that some of the long-range cruise missiles have accidentally fallen on Iran. Russia and Iran have denied the reports and accused the Americans of waging “psychological warfare”.
Editorial, 12 October 2015
The Russian Bear has landed in Syria with a loud thump.
Since the Russian forces launched, on September 30, their air action against the enemies of the Syrian government, punditry has gone into over-drive. Antagonists of Moscow have condemned President Vladimir Putin for throwing a life-line to the Syrian dictator, for interfering in Middle Eastern affairs, of expanding its “aggression” from Ukraine to the oil-rich Arab world. Pundits and countries which have “no dog in the race” have wondered why Putin would get into the violent Middle Eastern quagmire which has left America with second thoughts about its disastrous involvement in Iraq. Friends of Russia and the victims of the Syrian Civil War have welcomed Putin’s army. Some have even sighed with “what took you so long?”
With an average of 20 sorties a day, the Russian aircraft (SU-34, SU-24M2, MiGs) carrying FAB-50 bombs, OFAB 250-70 “bunker busters”, BETAB-M bombs, anti-tank cluster munitions (RBK-500 and SPBE-D have seriously damaged the rebels (such as the al-Nusra Front) and the ISIS terrorists forcing them to withdraw from several strategic areas in the north east of Syria. The Russians have also used precision guided munitions and laser guided missiles of the Kh-29ML-type. For a further show of strength and commitment, they have fired missiles from 1,500 km away—from their warships in the Caspian. American sources have reported that some of the long-range cruise missiles have accidentally fallen on Iran. Russia and Iran have denied the reports and accused the Americans of waging “psychological warfare”.
Putin has confused observers by saying he would not send ground forces and then contradicting himself by speculating that he might allow Russian “volunteers” to fight in Syria, just as in Eastern Ukraine.
It’s clear that the Russian air action is intended to soften up the enemies of el-Assad and eliminate their conventional weapons such as tanks, armored personnel vehicles and rocket artillery. The Russians have also gone after rebel command centres, ammunition depots, training camps, and communication networks. In mid-October, the rebels in some areas were in full flight.
In questioning Putin’s rescue operation, political analysts have wondered why he would take such a “rash” action. They have pointed out all the reasons why the Russian president should have kept his war planes at home. They have cited Russia’s poor economy since oil prices tanked. The Syrian action is costing Moscow $10 million per day. They have pointed out that Russia is already involved in an expensive “adventure” in Crimea and in eastern Ukraine. The experts have said Russia can’t afford further deterioration of its relations with the West. As well, many observers have mentioned that Russia would antagonize Muslim countries (which are overwhelmingly Sunni like the terrorists) and encourage domestic unrest from Russia’s 15 million Muslims. Enemies of Russia and neutral observers offered assorted other reasons why the Russian action was foolhardy.
But the fact is Russia had no option but to get involved in the war.
For several years Putin had watched the West and its allies (Turkey, Qatar, S. Arabia, Jordan) supposedly try to eliminate (unsuccessfully) ISIS while supporting (money, training, sanctuary, intelligence) the Syrian rebels who are equally committed to bringing down the el-Assad regime. After four years of watching the war from the sidelines, the Russian president and his chief advisers came to the conclusion that el-Assad’s days were numbered. The Syrian army had shrunk because of high casualties. Some Alawites, the backbone of the regime, were having doubts about their chances of winning. The rebels and ISIS were gaining ground. Just before the Russian air force’s arrival, el-Assad controlled only 17% of the country.
Russia could not afford to lose Syria.
Russian/Syrian relations go back to 1946 or soon after the French were forced to pull out of Damascus. The friendship began with Russia selling guns to newly-independent Syria. The relationship became stronger in the mid-50s, especially after Syria joined Egypt to become United Arab Republic. The Russian-Syrian firmed up even more during the reign of Hafez el-Assad, the Syrian president’s father. For years Damascus has been the rare Arab friend of Moscow (“client” in NATO parlance). Of the 20 or so Mediterranean countries, Syria is the only place where the Russian navy can moor. Russians have ten warships and auxiliary craft moored at Syria’s Tartus naval base. America’s Sixth Fleet can practically moor at any other Mediterranean port. No friendly Syria means no naval base in Tartus. No Tartus sanctuary, no Russian navy presence in the Mediterranean. In its military and diplomatic rivalry with Washington, Moscow couldn’t idly watch the Mediterranean become closed waters to Moscow.
It’s not likely that Putin imagines he can restore el-Assad’s rule over Syria’s pre-civil war boundaries. Too much water under the bridge (the rebels, ISIS, the Kurds, the emptying of the country, empty Damascus coffers, permanent Sunni hostility led by the oil-rich sheiks, the weakening of the Alawites).
Putin, a realistic man, sent his air force to strengthen el-Assad’s hand during eventual peace negotiations. Since it’s unlikely that el-Assad’s many and strong enemies will agree to see him retain power over all of Syria, Russia would like to establish “Alawistan” in northwest Syria. The mini-state would depend on Russia for its security. It would include Latakia and Tartus—the ports Russia needs. Alawis, who are traditionally concentrated in that area, would have sanctuary; el-Assad will continue to be the boss; Russia will have a safe harbor. The modest proposal is something the Sunnis and the West might agree to when the alternative is a long, drawn-out war which would keep the Middle East in turmoil for many years.
Keghart
Keghart
9 comments
What took Putin so long?
One can only wonder what took Putin so long to support an ally.
Speaking of which, Armenia and Russia are allies, and yet Russia does nothing as Azerbaijan shells villages in Armenia itself.
Rhetorical question:
For the past 60 years, of the various peoples in the Middle East,which people's well-being has the U.S. paid more attention to: Christians or Jews?
Russia stands by Armenia
David,
You must either be very ignorant of geopolitics… or you have a Russophobic agenda to push forward. Russia will NOT get involved in any border skirmish between Armenia and Azerbaijan for two fundamental reasons: 1) With Russia covering Armenia's Turkish flank, Armenia is more than ready to handle Azerbaijan. 2) For Russia to intervene on behalf of Armenia, Armenia has to be threatened with an invasion and Yerevan has to call for military assistance.
Russia sees Armenia as one of its strategic outposts (thank God for that) and Moscow would even resort to a nuclear war if Armenia was ever threatened.
“A Friend in Need…”
Once again the whole world witnessed how the brave President of Russia Vladimir Putin rushed to help his faithful friend Bashar el-Assad. That's the way real friends offer help to their friends.
Every normal adult understands that the other countries, such as the United States, France, Germany and the other imperialist powers are acting as colonizers as usual.
I am sure you have heard the following: "You can wash a raven with a soap as much as you wish but it will never change its color".
The biggest losers in all these wars in the Middle East (Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel) are the Christians.
When I was a child my grand mother used to sing the following song to me.
"There was a time when we were living free. We climbed mountains and walked on the fields without any fear. We had our own kingdom." "Gar jamanag vor menk azad g'abreink, mer sepagan takavornern uneink".
That was also the case when Bashar el-Assad was ruling Syria peacefully. He never thought of betraying his Christian citizens and his allies. But that's against the principles of the imperialists and the New World Order who want to replace God with the devil. I see it day by day how the churches are being brought down, how the teaching of religion in school is being forbidden, and how the children are making fun of religion.
Let's be fair and honest: let's accept that Christians lived, for centuries, side by side with the Muslims peacefully until the United States, NATO and the so-called inventors of the New World Order created the the so-called Al Qaida and the Al Nusra, ISIS, etc.
Please don't get me wrong: I am a supporter of the creation of an Islamic Khalifaat. There are many Muslims who prefer to adopt the Sharia law. Why not?
This problem can be solved only by dividing Egypt, Syria, Iraq, etc. into two parts through peaceful negotiations and divide Turkey into five parts: West Armenia; Khalifaat; mixed population; Kurdistan and the Shia states, with their own recognized borders under the supervision of Russia. I nominate Russia because we know that the other parties ( the imperialists and the colonizers) are not to be trusted.
Nicolai Romashuk Hairabedian
Action in the Syrian Desert
I remember 25 years or so ago, the US and the western coalition forces cleared Iraq off Sadam Hussein and his formidable armed forces within a few months. Now it has been over a year-and-a-half or so, the same US and its coalition forces cannot make a dent against ISIS in Syria. Is this because ISIS is so powerful or is it by design?
In Your Editorial
Sir:
In your editorial (6 Oct. 2015) you wrote this: “But the pro and con political parties are irrelevant. Sargsian and his Republican Party will have their way… just as dictators Erdogan changed jobs to become president of Turkey and Vladimir Putin “stepped aside” for a term and appointed his puppet Medvedev to “lead” the country. Serjik is in good company”.
Implying that Presidents Putin and Sargsian are, quote, “dictators”. It goes without saying that your labeling of Presidents Putin and Sargsian as "dictators" is unfortunate and baseless.
But isn’t it interesting that supposed democracies of Canada and the US stand by and watch, while our Armenian Christian community in Syria, with other Christian and Alawite communities, is being systematically destroyed and ethnically cleansed by Sunni Islamist terrorists, yet it was “dictator” Putin who stepped in to save whatever is left of Christians in Syria.
Question: what would you rather have?
(a) Fake Western “democracy” and no Armenian communities in Syria (e.g. Kessab, Aleppo) or in Lebanon?
(b) or a strong Orthodox Christian Russian "dictator" who is at least trying to save Christians in Syria from total wipe-out?
Those are the only two choices.
The West is not only standing by as Christians in the Middle East are being wiped out, but they are the enablers and supporters of Islamist terrorists.
Mistaken Attribution and False Logic
Avery's comment is a case of mistaken attribution and false logic.
The mistaken attribution: The editorial didn't say SS is a dictator. We have always said that he is an oligarch. Although the head of the oligarchy, SS still depends on that plutocrat elite's support to maintain his rule. Thus he can't take unilateral action the way a dictator can. But whether he is a dictator or oligarch, it doesn't make much difference to the average citizen in Armenia, because he imposes what's in the interest of the greedy, brutal, and destructive oligrachs to the detriment of the citizen.
The false logic in Avery's argument: If someone does something good (Putin helping Syria) then everything he does is good.
The false logic is also infected by the virus of inaccuracy/falsehood. Putin didn't send his airplanes to Syria to save the Christians. The Russians are there to save the el-Assad regime. As the editorial said, Russia needs Syria's Tartus harbour for its navy. While for years millions of Christians (Copts in Egypt; Armenians, Assyrians, Chaldeans, etc. in Iraq and Syria) were killed, persecuted, oppressed in the Middle East by Muslim fanatics, Putin didn't protest, let alone send his pilots to save them.
Poster [David] asked: “One
Poster [David] asked: “One can only wonder what took Putin so long to support an ally. Speaking of which, Armenia and Russia are allies, and yet Russia does nothing as Azerbaijan shells villages in Armenia itself.”
Poster [Norserunt] responded appropriately to the loaded question. And I will add some historical facts to refute David’s implied innuendo.
Syria first:
Russia has been supporting its ally Syria since day one.
Where do you think Syria has been getting its ammunition, ordinance, military spare parts, etc: NATO ?
Where do you think Syria has its Soviet era military hardware serviced and repaired: Turkey ?
About 2 years ago, Islamist terrorists, with Turkish support, organized and carried out a chemical attack in Syria which killed hundreds of innocent people.
The idea was to manufacture an artificial “crossing of red line”, which President Obama had pledged not to let Syria cross, to give US the excuse to attack Syria.
Sure enough, Pres Obama started laying the groundwork to send in the B-52 carpet bombers.
Officially, Putin “persuaded” Obama to sand down, in exchange for Syria pledging to get rid of its chemical arsenal.
(unofficially, Russia must have told US it would get directly involved if US attacked Syria directly, which eventually Russia did this year…)
Had Russia allowed US to bomb Syria 2 years ago, there would not be a country called Syria today and no Syrian-Armenians, no Christians, no Alawites,….
Armenia next:
In 1993 at the height of the Artsakh war of Liberation, as Artsakh’s military had crushed the Azerbaijani onslaught and was hot on the heels of the nomads fleeing towards Baku, Turkey assembled a large invasion army on the border of RoA. The plan was to invade RoA, cut through Southern Armenia, race to Baku and save their Turkic kin from total defeat.
Turkey was counting on the fact that Russia being on its knees at the time, and its political leadership in turmoil and crises, Moscow would be unwilling or unable to react.
Boy they were wrong.
The security and military establishment of Russia was not in turmoil: CIS head Shaposhnikov told Turks tht if they crossed the RoA border, WW3 will start.
It was not lost on the Turks that WW3 meant a nuclear strike.
They packed their bags and ran back to their barracks in a hurry.
People who issue snide remarks about Russia not helping Armenia when Azerbaijan shells Armenian villages are the same people who complain that Russia suffocates Armenia with a bear-hug.
Pres Sargsian recently remarked regarding that in an interview: (paraphrasing) “People want Armenia to be independent, but at the same time want CSTO to rush to its 'rescue' every time there is a shot from Azerbaijan…which do you want ? Independence or total dependence”.
Both RoA and NKR military leaders have stated numerous times that they have more than adequate forces to handle Azerbaijan, and then some.
Russia’s (and CSTO) role is to keep NATO member Turkey from attacking Armenia and Artsakh.
In an all out war RoA and NKR will destroy Azerbaijan on their own. Anyone who doubts that, needs to re-study the NKR war and how it ended.
Putin and Armenia
As far as I can see, Putin is the 21st century reincarnation of Stalin. There is no need to repeat what Stalin did for Armenia; Putin can do the same if he wants to. Let's pray that this time we are on his good side.
I Am Scared
By reading these commentaries and listening to the news, I am scared a big world war is coming without notice.
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