Zero Progress

18 February 2010
The Economist

When the Turkish government signed a deal with Armenia last October, it looked like a clear achievement for its policy of “zero problems” with its neighbours. The old foes agreed to establish relations and open their common border, which had been sealed by the Turks in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan, during its nasty war with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mainly Armenian enclave. The deal offered the hope of burying the ghosts of the past by setting up a joint committee of historians to investigate the mass slaughter of Ottoman Armenians in 1915.
 

18 February 2010
The Economist

When the Turkish government signed a deal with Armenia last October, it looked like a clear achievement for its policy of “zero problems” with its neighbours. The old foes agreed to establish relations and open their common border, which had been sealed by the Turks in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan, during its nasty war with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mainly Armenian enclave. The deal offered the hope of burying the ghosts of the past by setting up a joint committee of historians to investigate the mass slaughter of Ottoman Armenians in 1915.
 

But ancient enmities are not so easily cast off. Just a day after the deal was signed, Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said that it could not be implemented until Armenia withdrew from Nagorno-Karabakh, which it has occupied since the war. No matter that the agreement made no mention of the conflict.
 

Now Turkey is throwing a fresh tantrum. The Armenian constitutional court recently approved the agreement on the grounds that it satisfied the founding principles of the state, which include seeking worldwide recognition of the 1915 tragedy as genocide. Fearing any such moves, Turkey has demanded that the court retract its reasoning. Many think the Turkish government, squeezed between proud nationalists at home and outraged Azerbaijanis abroad, is seizing on the Armenian court’s word to justify its qualms. Armenia has sent the deal to parliament for approval.

Turkey looks isolated. America, its most important ally (and the deal’s biggest backer), has taken Armenia’s side. Russia argues that Turkish-Armenian relations should not be linked to Nagorno-Karabakh, a view shared in Washington.

Yet the deal is not universally backed in Armenia. In making its judgment, the constitutional court may have been responding to hardline nationalists, who are furious that their government has agreed to recognise Turkey’s borders. (They claim that parts of eastern Turkey belong to an Armenian “historical homeland”.) The president, Serzh Sargsyan, has now declared that ratification will be held up until the Turkish parliament votes on the deal.

America is watching closely. If the deal collapses, the way would be left open for Congress to pass a resolution recognising the 1915 killings as genocide, something it has long threatened. This in turn could trigger anti-American feelings in Turkey strong enough to leave Ankara feeling that it has no choice but to retaliate. One option would be to kick the Americans out from the strategically located Incirlik airbase.

The comfort is that ordinary Turks and Armenians are ignoring their leaders and building friendship on their own terms. Turkey’s privately owned Su TV recently launched an Armenian-language news programme. And business between the two countries, despite their closed border, is growing daily, via Georgia.